Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$212.5

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 99.6¢

+65% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,138

Combined PnL+$334.94

Under5 traders

Total Value$117.05

Total Shares725

Combined PnL-$122.44

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 62.1¢	$474.29	$757.74	+$283.45	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 56¢	$149.9	$187.3	+$37.39	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 42.6¢	$141.1	$89.38	-$51.72	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70¢	$45.15	$54.5	+$9.35
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.6¢	$95.95	$34.88	-$61.08
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 37¢	$193.97	$81.26	-$112.71	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 57¢	$54.28	$66.66	+$12.38	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$40.95	$31.43	-$9.52	36% 910-1584 (2494)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 69¢	$4.29	$5.26	+$0.96	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$3.5	+$0.75	40% 609-910 (1519)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 1.7¢	$1.69	$2.25	+$0.57	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.65	-$0.25	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$0.99	$0.46	-$0.52	50% 3678-3623 (7301)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$474.29

Value

$757.74

PnL

+$283.45

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$149.9

Value

$187.3

PnL

+$37.39

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$141.1

Value

$89.38

PnL

-$51.72

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

Both legs:

Over$45.1570¢+$9.35

Under$95.9542.6¢-$61.08

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$193.97

Value

$81.26

PnL

-$112.71

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$54.28

Value

$66.66

PnL

+$12.38

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.95

Value

$31.43

PnL

-$9.52

Record

36%

910-1584 (2494)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$4.29

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$0.96

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.75

Record

40%

609-910 (1519)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.69

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.57

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.