Spread: Rockets (-11.5)

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (73%) · Jazz at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Rockets7¢Jazz93¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$20.46

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 93¢

+35% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets7%

Jazz93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz11 traders

Total Value$934.39

Total Shares1,108

Combined PnL-$0.82

Rockets4 traders

Total Value$63.94

Total Shares168

Combined PnL-$19.64

Jazz — 73%Rockets — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 76.7¢	$382.59	$230.85	-$57.08	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
TO topdogbigboi	Jazzavg 74.3¢	$212.67	$200.83	-$11.84	37% 841-1416 (2257)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Jazzavg 52.7¢	$165.25	$175.04	+$9.78	48% 465-495 (960)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Rocketsavg 28.9¢	$172.32	$104.11	-$47.96	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 28.9¢	$133.25	$64.54	-$61.76
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 56¢	$25.77	$39.58	+$13.81
CI cigarettes<$100	Jazzavg 93¢	$93	$95	+$2	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Jazzavg 69.8¢	$73.3	$93.45	+$20.15	44% 422-532 (954)
LR lryyy<$100	Jazzavg 83.5¢	$89.54	$91.48	+$1.94	45% 712-885 (1597)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rocketsavg 62¢	$189.46	$31.67	-$6.78	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 54¢	$23.48	$19.57	-$3.91	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Jazzavg 36¢	$11.25	$17.5	+$6.25	48% 855-936 (1791)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 52.3¢	$80.8	$11.69	+$22.77	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
SU suntori<$100	Jazzavg 39¢	$5.71	$8.2	+$2.49	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
RN1CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 37.3¢	$17.75	$6.66	-$11.09	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$4.85	$6.07	+$1.21	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 29¢	$3.89	$6.03	+$2.15	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jazzavg 56¢	$2.8	$4.3	+$1.5	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$382.59

Value

$230.85

PnL

-$57.08

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

topdogbigboi

Jazz

Invested

$212.67

Value

$200.83

PnL

-$11.84

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

CandleHammerDrums

Jazz

Invested

$165.25

Value

$175.04

PnL

+$9.78

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$172.32

Value

$104.11

PnL

-$47.96

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Rockets$133.2528.9¢-$61.76

Jazz$25.7756¢+$13.81

cigarettes<$100

Jazz

Invested

$93

Value

$95

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

justaluckydude<$100

Jazz

Invested

$73.3

Value

$93.45

PnL

+$20.15

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

lryyy<$100

Jazz

Invested

$89.54

Value

$91.48

PnL

+$1.94

Record

45%

712-885 (1597)

38791873984189CTR

Rockets

Invested

$189.46

Value

$31.67

PnL

-$6.78

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$23.48

Value

$19.57

PnL

-$3.91

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

SnakeBall<$100

Jazz

Invested

$11.25

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$6.25

Record

48%

855-936 (1791)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$80.8

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$22.77

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

suntori<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5.71

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$2.49

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

RN1CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$17.75

Value

$6.66

PnL

-$11.09

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Jazz

Invested

$4.85

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$1.21

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$3.89

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$2.15

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

ferdinand2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.8

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.