Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 248.5

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (10%) · Under at 80¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 10%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$317.02

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 10 top traders (10%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$766.16

Total Shares844

Combined PnL-$43.17

Over9 traders

Total Value$585.99

Total Shares3,848

Combined PnL-$273.85

Under — 10%Over — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (11 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 86.8¢	$1.0K	$972.95	-$27.59	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Under leg	Underavg 86.8¢	$815.64	$718.94	-$96.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 17.1¢	$184.9	$254	+$69.11
RN1	Underavg 81.6¢	$809.33	$766.16	-$43.17	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 87.3¢	$575.44	$514.36	-$8.51	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Under leg	Underavg 87.3¢	$419.27	$393.74	-$25.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 14.5¢	$97.4	$120.62	+$17.01
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 23¢	$336.08	$219.19	-$116.9	50% 306-311 (617)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 21.9¢	$293.92	$201.6	-$92.32	54% 1122-947 (2069)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 20.4¢	$88.59	$65.03	-$23.56	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$65.78	$44.85	-$20.93	52% 411-380 (791)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$23.45	$15.27	+$6.82	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$21	$15	-$6	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$17.6	$13.2	-$4.4	44% 496-624 (1120)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 16.8¢	$122.98	$11.53	-$16.74	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$0.15	$0.32	+$0.17	53% 1163-1023 (2186)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,000.54

Value

$972.95

PnL

-$27.59

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Under$815.6486.8¢-$96.7

Over$184.917.1¢+$69.11

RN1

Under

Invested

$809.33

Value

$766.16

PnL

-$43.17

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$575.44

Value

$514.36

PnL

-$8.51

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Under$419.2787.3¢-$25.53

Over$97.414.5¢+$17.01

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$336.08

Value

$219.19

PnL

-$116.9

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$293.92

Value

$201.6

PnL

-$92.32

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.59

Value

$65.03

PnL

-$23.56

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65.78

Value

$44.85

PnL

-$20.93

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.45

Value

$15.27

PnL

+$6.82

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21

Value

$15

PnL

-$6

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.6

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$4.4

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$122.98

Value

$11.53

PnL

-$16.74

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 10 top traders (10%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (11 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.