Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 246.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$181.61

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 75.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,582

Combined PnL-$88.15

Over3 traders

Total Value$291.33

Total Shares1,348

Combined PnL-$93.46

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 73¢	$605.66	$609.6	+$3.94	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
RN1	Underavg 84.9¢	$587.49	$501.7	-$85.79	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 69¢	$288.39	$345.92	+$57.53	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69¢	$219.42	$257.58	+$38.16
└ Over leg	Overavg 14.8¢	$68.97	$88.34	+$19.37
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 28.2¢	$513.64	$260.98	-$77	54% 1122-947 (2069)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 86.2¢	$71.56	$28.35	-$7.21	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$37.51	$22.99	-$14.52	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 69¢	$17.94	$18.85	+$0.91	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$9.3	$7.36	-$1.94	50% 306-311 (617)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$605.66

Value

$609.6

PnL

+$3.94

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

RN1

Under

Invested

$587.49

Value

$501.7

PnL

-$85.79

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$288.39

Value

$345.92

PnL

+$57.53

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Under$219.4269¢+$38.16

Over$68.9714.8¢+$19.37

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$513.64

Value

$260.98

PnL

-$77

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$71.56

Value

$28.35

PnL

-$7.21

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.51

Value

$22.99

PnL

-$14.52

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$17.94

Value

$18.85

PnL

+$0.91

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.3

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$1.94

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.