Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 238.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 46¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$174.7

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 45.5¢

-20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,540

Combined PnL-$313.64

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,605

Combined PnL+$138.94

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 65.2¢	$960.16	$647.68	-$312.48	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
AN Anon455	Overavg 43.2¢	$431.66	$479.83	+$48.17	50% 306-311 (617)
TA takeormake	Overavg 51¢	$403.92	$443.52	+$39.6	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 43¢	$430.95	$435.51	+$4.56	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 40.1¢	$223.1	$311.62	+$88.52	52% 411-380 (791)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$141.43	$201.44	+$60.01	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$105.43	$106.44	+$1.01
└ Over leg	Overavg 18¢	$36	$95	+$59
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 57¢	$961.9	$123.37	-$48.53	54% 1122-947 (2069)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 66.8¢	$72	$39.64	-$5.72	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 20¢	$8	$19.2	+$11.2	35% 700-1328 (2028)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 57¢	$1.42	$1.4	-$0.02	46% 1805-2097 (3902)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$960.16

Value

$647.68

PnL

-$312.48

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$431.66

Value

$479.83

PnL

+$48.17

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$403.92

Value

$443.52

PnL

+$39.6

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$430.95

Value

$435.51

PnL

+$4.56

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$223.1

Value

$311.62

PnL

+$88.52

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$141.43

Value

$201.44

PnL

+$60.01

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Under$105.4352¢+$1.01

Over$3618¢+$59

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$961.9

Value

$123.37

PnL

-$48.53

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72

Value

$39.64

PnL

-$5.72

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$11.2

Record

35%

700-1328 (2028)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.