Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 236.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 67¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 13

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$474.16

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 66.5¢

+53% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,487

Combined PnL+$676.02

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,606

Combined PnL-$201.86

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 43¢	$781.31	$1.2K	+$390.66	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 56.5¢	$1.1K	$999.99	-$130	50% 306-311 (617)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 44.4¢	$722.11	$972.52	+$250.42	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$621.31	$671.72	+$50.42	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$449.58	$415.79	-$33.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 33.5¢	$171.73	$255.94	+$84.2
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 63.1¢	$570.43	$557.46	-$12.97	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.1¢	$429.31	$340	-$89.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.4¢	$141.12	$217.46	+$76.34
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 57¢	$341.43	$199.5	-$49.93	52% 411-380 (791)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 53¢	$64.13	$60.5	-$3.63	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 62.4¢	$99.11	$51.65	-$12.13	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 42¢	$36.12	$43	+$6.88	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 24¢	$19.38	$40.38	+$21	34% 690-1345 (2035)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 46.7¢	$28	$38.7	+$10.7	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 55.9¢	$36.47	$32.95	-$3.52	54% 1122-947 (2069)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$19.04	$12.75	-$6.29	46% 1805-2097 (3902)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$781.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$390.66

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,129.99

Value

$999.99

PnL

-$130

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$722.11

Value

$972.52

PnL

+$250.42

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$621.31

Value

$671.72

PnL

+$50.42

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Under$449.5854.1¢-$33.79

Over$171.7333.5¢+$84.2

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$570.43

Value

$557.46

PnL

-$12.97

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Both legs:

Under$429.3163.1¢-$89.31

Over$141.1232.4¢+$76.34

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$341.43

Value

$199.5

PnL

-$49.93

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$64.13

Value

$60.5

PnL

-$3.63

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$99.11

Value

$51.65

PnL

-$12.13

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$36.12

Value

$43

PnL

+$6.88

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$19.38

Value

$40.38

PnL

+$21

Record

34%

690-1345 (2035)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$28

Value

$38.7

PnL

+$10.7

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.47

Value

$32.95

PnL

-$3.52

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.04

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$6.29

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.