Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 234.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 71¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 13

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.9K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 71¢

+43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares18,720

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,138

Combined PnL-$487.76

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Overavg 49.8¢	$9.1K	$13.2K	+$4.1K	49% 263-278 (541)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$8.4K	$7.5K	-$828.39	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$6.6K	$5.4K	$-1.2K
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$361.1
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$1.0K	$826.56	-$187.36	50% 306-311 (617)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 62¢	$677.45	$533.03	-$88.95	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Over leg	Overavg 24¢	$94.12	$282.85	+$214.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 62¢	$553.83	$250.18	-$303.65
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 36.7¢	$311.21	$392.54	+$81.33	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.7¢	$177.83	$286.21	+$108.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.4¢	$133.38	$106.33	-$27.05
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 76.2¢	$574.71	$359.48	-$192.11	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.7¢	$73.76	$185.04	+$111.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 76.2¢	$475.03	$174.44	-$303.39
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 51¢	$356.49	$286.59	-$69.9	52% 411-380 (791)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 36¢	$360	$280	-$80	42% 331-451 (782)
TA takeormake	Overavg 41.3¢	$154.78	$270	+$115.22	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 50.4¢	$2.2K	$155.57	-$137.67	54% 1122-947 (2069)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 58.5¢	$55.81	$29.94	-$8.53	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 49¢	$123.62	$26.83	-$12.79	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 71¢	$7.1	$2.8	-$4.3	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

Pwaddler

Over

Invested

$9,122.13

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

49%

263-278 (541)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$8,377.7

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$828.39

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Both legs:

Under$6,608.3150¢$-1.2K

Over$1,769.3949¢+$361.1

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,013.92

Value

$826.56

PnL

-$187.36

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$677.45

Value

$533.03

PnL

-$88.95

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Over$94.1224¢+$214.7

Under$553.8362¢-$303.65

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$311.21

Value

$392.54

PnL

+$81.33

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Over$177.8336.7¢+$108.38

Under$133.3851.4¢-$27.05

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$574.71

Value

$359.48

PnL

-$192.11

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Both legs:

Over$73.7628.7¢+$111.28

Under$475.0376.2¢-$303.39

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$356.49

Value

$286.59

PnL

-$69.9

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$360

Value

$280

PnL

-$80

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$154.78

Value

$270

PnL

+$115.22

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$2,188.38

Value

$155.57

PnL

-$137.67

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.81

Value

$29.94

PnL

-$8.53

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$123.62

Value

$26.83

PnL

-$12.79

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.1

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$4.3

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.