Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 230.5

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (46%) · Under at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 46%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$14.11

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 67.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,099

Combined PnL-$25.18

Over7 traders

Total Value$675.5

Total Shares1,960

Combined PnL+$11.07

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 66.5¢	$935.01	$934.33	-$0.68	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 35¢	$229.6	$232.88	+$3.28	49% 303-310 (613)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 31¢	$150.6	$157.88	+$7.29	54% 1122-947 (2069)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 55¢	$121.64	$120.54	-$1.11	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
nigiri99	Underavg 65.7¢	$341.49	$119.8	-$25.16	52% 388-362 (750)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$91.62	$93.71	+$2.09	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 55.2¢	$88.3	$90.35	+$2.05	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$84.94	$83.75	-$1.19	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$62.3	$61.9	-$0.4	47% 564-628 (1192)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 66¢	$40.92	$40.44	-$0.48	44% 177-221 (398)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$33.65	$33.43	-$0.21	35% 657-1232 (1889)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 55¢	$19.23	$19.44	+$0.21	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 34.5¢	$14.02	$11.94	+$0.21	53% 1117-973 (2090)

RN1

Under

Invested

$935.01

Value

$934.33

PnL

-$0.68

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$229.6

Value

$232.88

PnL

+$3.28

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$150.6

Value

$157.88

PnL

+$7.29

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$121.64

Value

$120.54

PnL

-$1.11

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$341.49

Value

$119.8

PnL

-$25.16

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91.62

Value

$93.71

PnL

+$2.09

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$88.3

Value

$90.35

PnL

+$2.05

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$84.94

Value

$83.75

PnL

-$1.19

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.3

Value

$61.9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$40.92

Value

$40.44

PnL

-$0.48

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.65

Value

$33.43

PnL

-$0.21

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$19.23

Value

$19.44

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.02

Value

$11.94

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.