Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$2.2K
$665.64
56.6¢ → 91¢
+61% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 56¢ | $1.4K | $2.0K | +$638.43 | 57% 3461-2635 (6096) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Overavg 57.2¢ | $42.7 | $67.1 | +$24.4 | 54% 1122-947 (2069) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $24.96 | $42.52 | +$17.56 | 51% 2128-2072 (4200) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 88.4¢ | $58.82 | $40.47 | -$18.36 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Overavg 56.7¢ | $17 | $27.6 | +$10.6 | 58% 3342-2409 (5751) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $15.39 | $8.4 | -$7 | 56% 324-253 (577) |
Invested
$1,361.02
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$638.43
Record
57%
3461-2635 (6096)
Invested
$42.7
Value
$67.1
PnL
+$24.4
Record
54%
1122-947 (2069)
Invested
$24.96
Value
$42.52
PnL
+$17.56
Record
51%
2128-2072 (4200)
Invested
$58.82
Value
$40.47
PnL
-$18.36
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
Invested
$17
Value
$27.6
PnL
+$10.6
Record
58%
3342-2409 (5751)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$15.39
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$7
Record
56%
324-253 (577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.