Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$217.59

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 98.5¢

+13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,108

Combined PnL-$64.65

Under2 traders

Total Value$31.61

Total Shares1,574

Combined PnL-$152.94

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 97.1¢	$985.6	$985.92	+$0.32	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
RN1	Overavg 79.2¢	$855.6	$465.74	-$177.8	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
AN Anon455	Overavg 67¢	$163.67	$212.12	+$48.46	50% 306-311 (617)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 90¢	$134.09	$143.06	+$8.97	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
SE seeeeeeb	Overavg 78¢	$97.53	$123.88	+$26.35	48% 391-432 (823)
PA pauleta23	Overavg 79¢	$97.53	$122.41	+$24.88	36% 320-570 (890)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 74.5¢	$43.57	$18.75	+$4.18	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$37.07	$18.66	-$18.42	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 10.2¢	$147.48	$12.96	-$134.52	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 97.2¢	$1.27	$1.27	+$0	53% 6404-5641 (12045)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$985.6

Value

$985.92

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

RN1

Over

Invested

$855.6

Value

$465.74

PnL

-$177.8

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$163.67

Value

$212.12

PnL

+$48.46

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$134.09

Value

$143.06

PnL

+$8.97

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

seeeeeeb

Over

Invested

$97.53

Value

$123.88

PnL

+$26.35

Record

48%

391-432 (823)

pauleta23

Over

Invested

$97.53

Value

$122.41

PnL

+$24.88

Record

36%

320-570 (890)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$43.57

Value

$18.75

PnL

+$4.18

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.07

Value

$18.66

PnL

-$18.42

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$147.48

Value

$12.96

PnL

-$134.52

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.