Spread: 76ers (-13.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (33%) · Raptors at 80¢ · $506 held · ended Nov 13

76ers21¢Raptors79¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 33%

Total Value

$505.75

Combined PnL

$30.39

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 79.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

76ers21%

Raptors80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$415.85

Total Shares473

Combined PnL+$40.2

76ers6 traders

Total Value$89.9

Total Shares458

Combined PnL-$9.81

Raptors — 33%76ers — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Raptorsavg 80.2¢	$307.35	$346.62	+$39.27	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Raptorsavg 71.2¢	$60.75	$60.75	+$0	64% 147-81 (228)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	76ersavg 28¢	$57.45	$32.8	-$24.65	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
RN1CTR<$100	76ersavg 10¢	$15.6	$31.98	+$16.38	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 31.6¢	$12.64	$11.6	-$1.04	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
TA takeormake<$100	Raptorsavg 85¢	$8.3	$8.49	+$0.94	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	76ersavg 28¢	$5.95	$6.17	+$0.21	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 33¢	$5.07	$4.45	-$0.61	47% 564-628 (1192)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	76ersavg 15¢	$3	$2.9	-$0.1	54% 1122-947 (2069)

6512395314597884

Raptors

Invested

$307.35

Value

$346.62

PnL

+$39.27

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

thatsabing0<$100

Raptors

Invested

$60.75

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

147-81 (228)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$57.45

Value

$32.8

PnL

-$24.65

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

RN1CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$15.6

Value

$31.98

PnL

+$16.38

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$12.64

Value

$11.6

PnL

-$1.04

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

takeormake<$100

Raptors

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.49

PnL

+$0.94

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

38791873984189CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$5.95

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$5.07

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.61

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.