Spread: 76ers (-12.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (25%) · Raptors at 69¢ · $905 held · ends Nov 13

76ers32¢Raptors68¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 25%

Total Value

$905.25

Combined PnL

-$19.55

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 68.5¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers32%

Raptors69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$669.25

Total Shares977

Combined PnL+$51.99

76ers6 traders

Total Value$236

Total Shares755

Combined PnL-$71.54

Raptors — 25%76ers — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 100076ers 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fyrsken	Raptorsavg 63.2¢	$614.2	$665.82	+$51.62	48% 29-31 (60)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	76ersavg 41.1¢	$161.23	$122.22	-$39.01	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	76ersavg 40¢	$97.6	$75.64	-$21.96	48% 2306-2514 (4820)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 41¢	$41.12	$31.09	-$10.03	46% 485-564 (1049)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Raptorsavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.43	+$0.38	70% 1697-734 (2431)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 36¢	$3.83	$3.29	-$0.53	49% 1093-1146 (2239)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	76ersavg 31¢	$2.17	$2.21	+$0.04	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	76ersavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.55	-$0.05	44% 170-217 (387)

fyrsken

Raptors

Invested

$614.2

Value

$665.82

PnL

+$51.62

Record

48%

29-31 (60)

HomeRunHazardCTR

76ers

Invested

$161.23

Value

$122.22

PnL

-$39.01

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

38791873984189CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$97.6

Value

$75.64

PnL

-$21.96

Record

48%

2306-2514 (4820)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$41.12

Value

$31.09

PnL

-$10.03

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

SunlineTicker<$100

Raptors

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.38

Record

70%

1697-734 (2431)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$3.83

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$0.53

Record

49%

1093-1146 (2239)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

44%

170-217 (387)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 100076ers 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.