Spread: Raptors (-6.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (36%) · 76ers at 82¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 13

Raptors19¢76ers81¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$49.1

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 81.5¢

+41% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors19%

76ers82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,432

Combined PnL+$979.57

Raptors7 traders

Total Value$836.94

Total Shares4,225

Combined PnL-$930.47

76ers — 36%Raptors — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	76ersavg 55¢	$1.9K	$2.9K	+$927.23	42% 169-232 (401)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Raptorsavg 45¢	$1.6K	$572.74	-$793.96	52% 411-380 (791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	76ersavg 68.7¢	$377.35	$376.42	-$0.94	54% 1122-947 (2069)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	76ersavg 71.9¢	$374.18	$314.11	-$60.07	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 71.9¢	$189.97	$215.36	+$25.39
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 34.5¢	$184.21	$98.75	-$85.47
RN1	76ersavg 68.3¢	$242.03	$287.67	+$45.63	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Raptorsavg 32.4¢	$285.61	$163.06	-$122.55	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 84¢	$139.55	$121.52	-$18.03	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 84¢	$100.8	$83.4	-$17.4
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 31¢	$38.75	$38.13	-$0.63
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 48¢	$72	$71.25	-$0.75	48% 367-391 (758)
TA takeormake<$100	76ersavg 68.3¢	$37.62	$37.91	+$7.63	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 48¢	$61.11	$13.55	-$10.93	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 13¢	$8.45	$8.78	+$0.33	49% 303-310 (613)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 13¢	$3.9	$4.05	+$0.15	28% 110-277 (387)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 33¢	$6.27	$3.52	-$2.75	49% 1386-1434 (2820)

biying88888

76ers

Invested

$1,924.45

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$927.23

Record

42%

169-232 (401)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,579.23

Value

$572.74

PnL

-$793.96

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

76ers

Invested

$377.35

Value

$376.42

PnL

-$0.94

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$374.18

Value

$314.11

PnL

-$60.07

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

Both legs:

76ers$189.9771.9¢+$25.39

Raptors$184.2134.5¢-$85.47

RN1

76ers

Invested

$242.03

Value

$287.67

PnL

+$45.63

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

FlaznorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

$285.61

Value

$163.06

PnL

-$122.55

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$139.55

Value

$121.52

PnL

-$18.03

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Both legs:

76ers$100.884¢-$17.4

Raptors$38.7531¢-$0.63

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$72

Value

$71.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

takeormake<$100

76ers

Invested

$37.62

Value

$37.91

PnL

+$7.63

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$61.11

Value

$13.55

PnL

-$10.93

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Anon455CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$8.45

Value

$8.78

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

28%

110-277 (387)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$6.27

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$2.75

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.