Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 82¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$237.47

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 81.5¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,551

Combined PnL-$239.95

Over4 traders

Total Value$79.25

Total Shares445

Combined PnL+$2.48

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 80¢	$908.06	$1.1K	+$241.69	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
└ Over leg	Overavg 12.4¢	$252.77	$548.53	+$295.76
└ Under leg	Underavg 80¢	$590	$538.38	-$54.07
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 87¢	$2.1K	$808.09	-$185.75	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
RN1	Underavg 86.5¢	$382.27	$327.08	-$55.19	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$50.64	$44.53	-$6.11	50% 501-511 (1012)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 74.8¢	$35.92	$36.73	+$0.8	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$19.45	$16.21	-$3.24	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$20	$15	-$5	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 78¢	$3.55	$3.73	+$0.18	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 15.9¢	$8.75	$3.51	+$16.84	48% 2658-2887 (5545)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$908.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$241.69

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

Both legs:

Over$252.7712.4¢+$295.76

Under$59080¢-$54.07

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,050.91

Value

$808.09

PnL

-$185.75

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

RN1

Under

Invested

$382.27

Value

$327.08

PnL

-$55.19

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.64

Value

$44.53

PnL

-$6.11

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$35.92

Value

$36.73

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.45

Value

$16.21

PnL

-$3.24

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$15

PnL

-$5

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.18

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.75

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$16.84

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.