Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 67¢ · $661 held · ended Nov 15

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

Total Value

$660.79

Combined PnL

$40.15

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 67¢

-21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$470.42

Total Shares595

Combined PnL-$37.2

Over8 traders

Total Value$190.36

Total Shares733

Combined PnL+$77.34

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 85¢	$288.26	$291.65	+$3.39	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
RN1	Underavg 86¢	$211.56	$170.97	-$40.59	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 15¢	$46.76	$120.02	+$73.26	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$34.44	$35.67	+$1.23	50% 501-511 (1012)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 18.2¢	$20.33	$20.13	-$0.2	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 78¢	$7.8	$7.8	+$0	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$2.31	$5.93	+$3.62	48% 2658-2887 (5545)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$5	$4.5	-$0.5	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$2.63	$2.63	+$0	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$1.1	$0.9	-$0.2	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$0.45	$0.59	+$0.14	39% 1675-2667 (4342)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$288.26

Value

$291.65

PnL

+$3.39

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

RN1

Under

Invested

$211.56

Value

$170.97

PnL

-$40.59

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$46.76

Value

$120.02

PnL

+$73.26

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.44

Value

$35.67

PnL

+$1.23

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.33

Value

$20.13

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.31

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$3.62

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.63

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.14

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.