Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$142.56

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 93.5¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,914

Combined PnL-$84.98

Over3 traders

Total Value$215.34

Total Shares939

Combined PnL-$57.58

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 88.9¢	$2.1K	$975.1	-$258.92	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1	Underavg 74.1¢	$539.89	$673.06	+$135.22	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$525	$535.5	+$10.5	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$404.25	+$141.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$262.5	$131.25	-$131.25
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 16.6¢	$1.1K	$310.08	+$112.09	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.5¢	$129.15	$187.22	+$303.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 16.6¢	$313.83	$122.86	-$190.97
38 38791873984189	Underavg 75.7¢	$172	$133.92	+$27.76	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 34¢	$145.47	$107	-$38.47	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$99.63	$79.75	-$19.88	50% 563-572 (1135)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 66¢	$25.5	$30.46	+$4.96	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 16.1¢	$27.82	$28.59	+$0.78	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 57¢	$5.7	$9.35	+$3.65	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$5.92	$8.26	+$2.34	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,106.21

Value

$975.1

PnL

-$258.92

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1

Under

Invested

$539.89

Value

$673.06

PnL

+$135.22

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$535.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Under$262.550¢+$141.75

Over$262.550¢-$131.25

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,087.91

Value

$310.08

PnL

+$112.09

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Both legs:

Under$129.1564.5¢+$303.06

Over$313.8316.6¢-$190.97

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$172

Value

$133.92

PnL

+$27.76

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$145.47

Value

$107

PnL

-$38.47

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$99.63

Value

$79.75

PnL

-$19.88

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$25.5

Value

$30.46

PnL

+$4.96

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.82

Value

$28.59

PnL

+$0.78

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$5.7

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$3.65

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$5.92

Value

$8.26

PnL

+$2.34

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.