Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 226.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 47¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 15

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

-$153.18

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 46.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares11,817

Combined PnL-$388.77

Under7 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares11,402

Combined PnL+$235.6

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 50¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	-$294.11	36% 63-110 (173)
nigiri99	Underavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$32.34	50% 748-738 (1486)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	Underavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$105	—
MaoZeDonK	Underavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$30	58% 49-36 (85)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Overavg 50¢	$908.52	$844.92	-$63.6	62% 1085-679 (1764)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 51¢	$553.35	$580.48	+$27.13	18% 63-282 (345)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 49¢	$490	$465	-$25	30% 495-1136 (1631)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 50¢	$358.01	$383.07	+$25.06	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 48.1¢	$203.33	$196.38	-$6.95	43% 561-753 (1314)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49¢	$158.73	$173.31	+$14.58	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$80.5	$81.38	+$0.88	59% 3960-2731 (6691)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 50¢	$21.36	$22.86	+$1.5	38% 1374-2228 (3602)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,201.5

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$294.11

Record

36%

63-110 (173)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,617

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$32.34

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

Under

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$105

Record

—

MaoZeDonK

Under

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$30

Record

58%

49-36 (85)

darkumbreon88CTR

Over

Invested

$908.52

Value

$844.92

PnL

-$63.6

Record

62%

1085-679 (1764)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$553.35

Value

$580.48

PnL

+$27.13

Record

18%

63-282 (345)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$490

Value

$465

PnL

-$25

Record

30%

495-1136 (1631)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$358.01

Value

$383.07

PnL

+$25.06

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$203.33

Value

$196.38

PnL

-$6.95

Record

43%

561-753 (1314)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$158.73

Value

$173.31

PnL

+$14.58

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.5

Value

$81.38

PnL

+$0.88

Record

59%

3960-2731 (6691)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$21.36

Value

$22.86

PnL

+$1.5

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.