Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 49¢ · $550 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 88%
$549.73
$19.9
46.4¢ → 48.5¢
+5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2CTR | Underavg 46¢ | $250.7 | $264.33 | +$13.63 | 44% 339-425 (764) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $86.19 | $87.09 | +$0.9 | 47% 1204-1385 (2589) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $69.35 | $73.12 | +$3.77 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $53.18 | $56 | +$2.82 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $53.32 | $51.31 | -$2.01 | 48% 131-144 (275) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $10.1 | $10.65 | +$0.55 | 18% 63-282 (345) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $4.64 | $4.84 | +$0.2 | 56% 679-534 (1213) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.4 | +$0.05 | 43% 867-1151 (2018) |
Invested
$250.7
Value
$264.33
PnL
+$13.63
Record
44%
339-425 (764)
Invested
$86.19
Value
$87.09
PnL
+$0.9
Record
47%
1204-1385 (2589)
Invested
$69.35
Value
$73.12
PnL
+$3.77
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$53.18
Value
$56
PnL
+$2.82
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$53.32
Value
$51.31
PnL
-$2.01
Record
48%
131-144 (275)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$10.1
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$0.55
Record
18%
63-282 (345)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.64
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
679-534 (1213)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
43%
867-1151 (2018)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.