Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 221.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$11.52

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 44.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$993.73

Total Shares2,158

Combined PnL+$12.6

Over2 traders

Total Value$787.98

Total Shares1,405

Combined PnL-$1.08

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 44.8¢	$591.14	$600.85	+$9.71	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
DA DanielsDixon	Overavg 55¢	$549.98	$554.98	+$5	29% 30-74 (104)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 59¢	$239.07	$232.99	-$6.08	48% 134-144 (278)
PP ppku6298CTR	Underavg 45¢	$227.25	$229.78	+$2.53	11% 16-126 (142)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$112.26	$113.65	+$1.39	56% 693-539 (1232)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$30.65	$30.34	-$0.31	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$8.49	$7.72	-$0.77	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.55	+$0.05	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 44.5¢	$4.45	$4.45	+$0	43% 875-1153 (2028)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	38% 1416-2272 (3688)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$591.14

Value

$600.85

PnL

+$9.71

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

DanielsDixon

Over

Invested

$549.98

Value

$554.98

PnL

+$5

Record

29%

30-74 (104)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$239.07

Value

$232.99

PnL

-$6.08

Record

48%

134-144 (278)

ppku6298CTR

Under

Invested

$227.25

Value

$229.78

PnL

+$2.53

Record

11%

16-126 (142)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$112.26

Value

$113.65

PnL

+$1.39

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.65

Value

$30.34

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.49

Value

$7.72

PnL

-$0.77

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.