Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 219.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 76¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$133.38

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 75.5¢

+26% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$846.16

Total Shares1,266

Combined PnL+$65.48

Under2 traders

Total Value$159.56

Total Shares872

Combined PnL-$198.86

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 59.7¢	$658.52	$708.81	+$50.29	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
RN1CTR	Underavg 41.1¢	$353.91	$154.94	-$198.97	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 63¢	$55.39	$56.99	+$1.6	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 62¢	$28.57	$38.02	+$9.45	46% 3415-3955 (7370)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 62.7¢	$25.1	$26	+$0.9	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 58.7¢	$7.82	$10.99	+$3.18	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$4.51	$4.62	+$0.11	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 65¢	$2.01	$2.04	+$0.03	50% 501-511 (1012)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 64¢	$1.78	$1.79	+$0.01	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.53	+$0.02	39% 1675-2667 (4342)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$658.52

Value

$708.81

PnL

+$50.29

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$353.91

Value

$154.94

PnL

-$198.97

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$55.39

Value

$56.99

PnL

+$1.6

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$28.57

Value

$38.02

PnL

+$9.45

Record

46%

3415-3955 (7370)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$25.1

Value

$26

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$7.82

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$3.18

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.51

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$2.01

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.02

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.