Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 217.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 56¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$158.47

Smart Money Entry

34.2¢ → 56.5¢

+65% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,183

Combined PnL+$147.82

Over3 traders

Total Value$326.8

Total Shares487

Combined PnL+$10.65

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Underavg 32¢	$648.94	$740.19	+$91.26	45% 389-480 (869)
RN1	Underavg 36.2¢	$386.82	$416.74	+$29.92	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$525	$366.25	+$8.75	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$191.63	-$70.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$137.5	$174.63	+$79.63
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 32.4¢	$1.2K	$309.82	+$24.77	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.4¢	$164.37	$172.68	+$144.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.9¢	$130.79	$137.14	-$119.95
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 36.1¢	$369.03	$265.97	+$19.03	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.1¢	$125.39	$196.41	+$71.02
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.9¢	$110.15	$69.56	-$52
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 65¢	$247.37	$258.79	+$11.42	50% 563-572 (1135)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 65¢	$197.63	$201.67	+$4.04	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
└ Over leg	Overavg 65¢	$131.63	$128.67	-$2.96
└ Under leg	Underavg 33¢	$66	$73	+$7
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 34.4¢	$207.43	$145.4	+$5.3	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.4¢	$77.16	$81.76	+$4.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 64.4¢	$64.56	$63.64	+$0.7
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 35.9¢	$143.94	$132.22	-$11.72	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 35¢	$91.64	$104.73	+$13.09	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 64¢	$57.05	$60.62	+$3.57	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 43¢	$43.61	$57.3	+$13.69	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 36¢	$47.16	$52.4	+$5.24	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 35.9¢	$36	$40.12	+$4.12	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 34.4¢	$27.85	$29.56	+$1.71	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$11.73	$7.4	-$4.34	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 36¢	$3.62	$4.12	+$0.5	53% 2407-2143 (4550)

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$648.94

Value

$740.19

PnL

+$91.26

Record

45%

389-480 (869)

RN1

Under

Invested

$386.82

Value

$416.74

PnL

+$29.92

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$366.25

PnL

+$8.75

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Under$262.550¢-$70.88

Over$137.550¢+$79.63

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,166.32

Value

$309.82

PnL

+$24.77

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Both legs:

Under$164.3732.4¢+$144.72

Over$130.7962.9¢-$119.95

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$369.03

Value

$265.97

PnL

+$19.03

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Both legs:

Under$125.3936.1¢+$71.02

Over$110.1568.9¢-$52

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$247.37

Value

$258.79

PnL

+$11.42

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$197.63

Value

$201.67

PnL

+$4.04

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Both legs:

Over$131.6365¢-$2.96

Under$6633¢+$7

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$207.43

Value

$145.4

PnL

+$5.3

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Both legs:

Under$77.1634.4¢+$4.6

Over$64.5664.4¢+$0.7

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$143.94

Value

$132.22

PnL

-$11.72

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$91.64

Value

$104.73

PnL

+$13.09

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.05

Value

$60.62

PnL

+$3.57

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$43.61

Value

$57.3

PnL

+$13.69

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$47.16

Value

$52.4

PnL

+$5.24

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$36

Value

$40.12

PnL

+$4.12

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$27.85

Value

$29.56

PnL

+$1.71

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.73

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$4.34

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.62

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.