Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 215.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 85¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$293.59

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 84.5¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,724

Combined PnL+$360.21

Under4 traders

Total Value$82.23

Total Shares547

Combined PnL-$66.62

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 71.7¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$207.2	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
fxwd12345	Overavg 86¢	$860	$885	+$25	69% 59-27 (86)
AN Anon455	Overavg 69.8¢	$589.63	$676.11	+$86.48	50% 501-511 (1012)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 27.5¢	$703.55	$473.42	-$230.13	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
└ Over leg	Overavg 74.1¢	$270.32	$331.8	+$61.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 27.5¢	$433.23	$141.62	-$291.61
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 68.5¢	$141.24	$175.31	+$34.06	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 67¢	$101.48	$107.64	+$6.16	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
RN1CTR	Underavg 26.6¢	$126.92	$59.73	-$67.19	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 68¢	$35.66	$36.97	+$1.31	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$8.96	$9.39	+$0.43	41% 1224-1758 (2982)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$8.64	$8.78	+$0.13	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 32.5¢	$4.34	$4.34	+$0	53% 2392-2134 (4526)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,204.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$207.2

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$860

Value

$885

PnL

+$25

Record

69%

59-27 (86)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$589.63

Value

$676.11

PnL

+$86.48

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$703.55

Value

$473.42

PnL

-$230.13

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

Both legs:

Over$270.3274.1¢+$61.48

Under$433.2327.5¢-$291.61

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$141.24

Value

$175.31

PnL

+$34.06

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$101.48

Value

$107.64

PnL

+$6.16

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$126.92

Value

$59.73

PnL

-$67.19

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$35.66

Value

$36.97

PnL

+$1.31

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.96

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0.43

Record

41%

1224-1758 (2982)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.64

Value

$8.78

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2392-2134 (4526)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.