Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 213.5

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 39¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$221.06

Smart Money Entry

27¢ → 39¢

+44% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$583.71

Total Shares1,608

Combined PnL+$221.06

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$525	$514.5	-$10.5	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$262.5	$409.5	+$147
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$105	-$157.5
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 73¢	$449.07	$416.95	-$32.12	50% 563-572 (1135)
└ Over leg	Overavg 73¢	$249.07	$301.95	+$52.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 20¢	$200	$115	-$85
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 23¢	$517.97	$272.63	+$198.16	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 84.3¢	$308.41	$233.62	-$45.24	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Over leg	Overavg 84.3¢	$164	$157.58	-$6.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.5¢	$97.92	$76.04	-$38.82
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 40¢	$132.16	$130.51	-$1.65	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 22.7¢	$52.55	$74.52	+$21.98	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$35.86	$41.66	+$5.8	50% 714-704 (1418)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 15.6¢	$29.55	$27.55	-$2	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$26.31	$26.64	+$0.33	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$7.28	$5.6	-$1.68	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$4.47	$4.59	+$0.12	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$525

Value

$514.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Over$262.550¢+$147

Under$262.550¢-$157.5

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$449.07

Value

$416.95

PnL

-$32.12

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

Both legs:

Over$249.0773¢+$52.88

Under$20020¢-$85

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$517.97

Value

$272.63

PnL

+$198.16

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$308.41

Value

$233.62

PnL

-$45.24

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Over$16484.3¢-$6.41

Under$97.9224.5¢-$38.82

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$132.16

Value

$130.51

PnL

-$1.65

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.55

Value

$74.52

PnL

+$21.98

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.86

Value

$41.66

PnL

+$5.8

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.55

Value

$27.55

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.31

Value

$26.64

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.28

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$1.68

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.59

PnL

+$0.12

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.