Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 211.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$17.7

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 70.5¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$773.79

Total Shares1,708

Combined PnL-$37.01

Over2 traders

Total Value$543.43

Total Shares647

Combined PnL+$54.71

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Underavg 50¢	$525	$514.5	-$10.5	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
AN Anon455	Overavg 77¢	$261.81	$305.01	+$43.2	50% 563-572 (1135)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 69.3¢	$226.91	$238.42	+$11.51	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 88¢	$169.28	$130.87	-$25.69	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Over leg	Overavg 88¢	$93.28	$83.74	-$9.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 23¢	$51.62	$47.13	-$16.15
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 26.2¢	$95.12	$109.05	+$13.93	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 22.5¢	$101.77	$90.81	-$3.01	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$63.38	$24.8	-$38.58	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 20.9¢	$13.36	$12.8	-$0.56	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$10.7	$12.39	+$1.69	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$5.31	$5.58	+$0.27	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$4.12	$3.86	-$0.26	48% 2668-2892 (5560)

NotJumpCTR

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$514.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$261.81

Value

$305.01

PnL

+$43.2

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$226.91

Value

$238.42

PnL

+$11.51

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$169.28

Value

$130.87

PnL

-$25.69

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Over$93.2888¢-$9.54

Under$51.6223¢-$16.15

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$95.12

Value

$109.05

PnL

+$13.93

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$101.77

Value

$90.81

PnL

-$3.01

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.38

Value

$24.8

PnL

-$38.58

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.36

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$0.56

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.7

Value

$12.39

PnL

+$1.69

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.31

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.12

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$0.26

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.