Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Spurs (62%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Spurs (-7.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (45%) · Jazz at 39¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Spurs62¢Jazz38¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 45%

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

35.4¢ → 38.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs62%

Jazz39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs6 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares10,705

Combined PnL+$496.56

Jazz5 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares19,498

Combined PnL+$640.98

Spurs — 55%Jazz — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 56.3¢	$5.0K	$5.5K	+$459.23	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
BI big8betzCTR	Jazzavg 43.9¢	$4.7K	$4.1K	-$584.6	50% 85-85 (170)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Jazzavg 25¢	$2.1K	$3.3K	+$1.2K	52% 2720-2524 (5244)
TO topdogbigboi	Spursavg 54.3¢	$496.75	$489.2	-$7.56	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
RN1	Spursavg 57¢	$413.71	$440.79	+$27.08	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
SN SnakeBall	Spursavg 50¢	$87.34	$106.55	+$19.21	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 25¢	$51.95	$81.2	+$29.25	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
balthazar<$100	Spursavg 66¢	$26.4	$24.6	-$1.8	42% 5258-7339 (12597)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$13.33	$13.91	+$0.58	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Spursavg 46¢	$11.97	$12.36	+$0.39	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jazzavg 23.8¢	$7.46	$12.2	+$4.74	38% 1462-2368 (3830)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$5,010.98

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$459.23

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

big8betzCTR

Jazz

Invested

$4,717.46

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$584.6

Record

50%

85-85 (170)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Jazz

Invested

$2,126.8

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

52%

2720-2524 (5244)

topdogbigboi

Spurs

Invested

$496.75

Value

$489.2

PnL

-$7.56

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$413.71

Value

$440.79

PnL

+$27.08

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

SnakeBall

Spurs

Invested

$87.34

Value

$106.55

PnL

+$19.21

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$51.95

Value

$81.2

PnL

+$29.25

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

balthazar<$100

Spurs

Invested

$26.4

Value

$24.6

PnL

-$1.8

Record

42%

5258-7339 (12597)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$13.33

Value

$13.91

PnL

+$0.58

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

Flaznorp<$100

Spurs

Invested

$11.97

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$7.46

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$4.74

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.