Spread: Spurs (-20.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (44%) · Jazz at 100¢ · $980 held · ended Nov 15

Spurs<1¢Jazz>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 44%

Total Value

$980.16

Combined PnL

-$62.35

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 99.6¢

+65% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs0%

Jazz100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$970.5

Total Shares981

Combined PnL+$41.51

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$9.66

Total Shares334

Combined PnL-$103.86

Jazz — 44%Spurs — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (9 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpurs 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Jazzavg 50¢	$525	$514.5	-$10.5	49% 1309-1353 (2662)
RN1	Jazzavg 67¢	$315.71	$344.68	+$28.98	54% 6261-5369 (11630)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 87.5¢	$402.11	$101.36	+$22.07	55% 2159-1794 (3953)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Jazzavg 90¢	$9	$9.96	+$0.96	50% 4157-4147 (8304)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Spursavg 33¢	$24.46	$5.89	-$2.49	50% 2334-2317 (4651)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Spursavg 33¢	$8.85	$2.49	-$6.36	48% 4254-4679 (8933)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Spursavg 33¢	$94.38	$1.14	-$93.24	48% 4971-5335 (10306)
saintaphextwinCTR<$100	Spursavg 32¢	$0.41	$0.09	-$0.32	8% 16-190 (206)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Spursavg 14.7¢	$1.49	$0.04	-$1.45	50% 567-573 (1140)

NotJump

Jazz

Invested

$525

Value

$514.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

49%

1309-1353 (2662)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$315.71

Value

$344.68

PnL

+$28.98

Record

54%

6261-5369 (11630)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$402.11

Value

$101.36

PnL

+$22.07

Record

55%

2159-1794 (3953)

6512395314597884<$100

Jazz

Invested

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.96

Record

50%

4157-4147 (8304)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$24.46

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$2.49

Record

50%

2334-2317 (4651)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$8.85

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$6.36

Record

48%

4254-4679 (8933)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$94.38

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$93.24

Record

48%

4971-5335 (10306)

saintaphextwinCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.32

Record

16-190 (206)

Anon455CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1.49

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.45

Record

50%

567-573 (1140)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (9 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpurs 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.