Spread: Spurs (-1.5)

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (50%) · Spurs at 53¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Spurs53¢Jazz47¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 50%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$775.1

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 52.5¢

-30% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs53%

Jazz48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,145

Combined PnL+$72.69

Jazz8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,277

Combined PnL+$702.42

Spurs — 50%Jazz — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 70.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$154.19	55% 2159-1794 (3953)
VE VenusianCTR	Jazzavg 18.9¢	$283.25	$710.69	+$427.44	39% 1528-2435 (3963)
LI LimousinCTR	Jazzavg 19.8¢	$167.64	$401.82	+$234.18	38% 1507-2416 (3923)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 80¢	$338.81	$326.29	-$12.53	50% 4157-4147 (8304)
SL SlickRick123	Spursavg 80¢	$338.31	$325.63	-$12.69	39% 540-847 (1387)
RN1	Spursavg 83.2¢	$339.81	$314.5	-$25.31	54% 6261-5369 (11630)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Jazzavg 40¢	$433.63	$273.89	-$159.74	51% 725-707 (1432)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 80.7¢	$574.21	$269.43	-$20.65	48% 4254-4679 (8933)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Jazzavg 18.8¢	$86.28	$218.21	+$131.93	38% 1525-2471 (3996)
PA Pan9X	Spursavg 80.4¢	$174.36	$136.65	-$7.52	50% 2334-2317 (4651)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Jazzavg 35¢	$69.57	$94.42	+$24.85	48% 4971-5335 (10306)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Spursavg 79.5¢	$96.77	$93.72	-$3.05	39% 1837-2824 (4661)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 20.8¢	$24.25	$55.45	+$31.2	38% 1508-2415 (3923)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Jazzavg 15¢	$23.7	$36.34	+$12.64	50% 567-573 (1140)
TA takeormake<$100	Spursavg 59¢	$0.77	$1	+$0.23	57% 3736-2860 (6596)
balthazarCTR<$100	Jazzavg 28¢	$0.46	$0.38	-$0.08	42% 5261-7371 (12632)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$1,572.48

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$154.19

Record

55%

2159-1794 (3953)

VenusianCTR

Jazz

Invested

$283.25

Value

$710.69

PnL

+$427.44

Record

39%

1528-2435 (3963)

LimousinCTR

Jazz

Invested

$167.64

Value

$401.82

PnL

+$234.18

Record

38%

1507-2416 (3923)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$338.81

Value

$326.29

PnL

-$12.53

Record

50%

4157-4147 (8304)

SlickRick123

Spurs

Invested

$338.31

Value

$325.63

PnL

-$12.69

Record

39%

540-847 (1387)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$339.81

Value

$314.5

PnL

-$25.31

Record

54%

6261-5369 (11630)

justaluckydudeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$433.63

Value

$273.89

PnL

-$159.74

Record

51%

725-707 (1432)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$574.21

Value

$269.43

PnL

-$20.65

Record

48%

4254-4679 (8933)

LightParadoxCTR

Jazz

Invested

$86.28

Value

$218.21

PnL

+$131.93

Record

38%

1525-2471 (3996)

Pan9X

Spurs

Invested

$174.36

Value

$136.65

PnL

-$7.52

Record

50%

2334-2317 (4651)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$69.57

Value

$94.42

PnL

+$24.85

Record

48%

4971-5335 (10306)

topdogbigboi<$100

Spurs

Invested

$96.77

Value

$93.72

PnL

-$3.05

Record

39%

1837-2824 (4661)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$24.25

Value

$55.45

PnL

+$31.2

Record

38%

1508-2415 (3923)

Anon455CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$23.7

Value

$36.34

PnL

+$12.64

Record

50%

567-573 (1140)

takeormake<$100

Spurs

Invested

$0.77

Value

PnL

+$0.23

Record

57%

3736-2860 (6596)

balthazarCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.08

Record

42%

5261-7371 (12632)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.