Spread: Spurs (-19.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (75%) · Jazz at 68¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Spurs32¢Jazz68¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$84.76

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 68¢

-11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs32%

Jazz68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,100

Combined PnL+$91.41

Spurs3 traders

Total Value$243.8

Total Shares1,123

Combined PnL-$6.65

Jazz — 75%Spurs — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 81.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$14.68	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$525	$546	+$21	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50¢	$262.5	$378	+$115.5
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 50¢	$262.5	$168	-$94.5
RN1ARB<$100	Jazzavg 64¢	$362.97	$385.87	+$22.9	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 64¢	$228.48	$301.66	+$73.18
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 24.8¢	$134.49	$84.21	-$50.28
38 38791873984189	Jazzavg 64¢	$200.67	$255.63	+$55.96	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
JU justaluckydude	Jazzavg 67¢	$189.61	$203.76	+$14.15	50% 714-704 (1418)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Spursavg 21¢	$399.15	$141.4	+$8.95	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
saintaphextwinCTR<$100	Spursavg 35¢	$77	$70.4	-$6.6	7% 15-190 (205)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Jazzavg 65¢	$43.05	$46.6	+$3.55	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Spursavg 41¢	$41	$32	-$9	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jazzavg 85¢	$18.7	$17.16	-$1.54	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 64¢	$16.64	$16.72	+$2.08	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Jazzavg 62¢	$12.2	$14.16	+$1.97	69% 1751-790 (2541)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Jazzavg 78¢	$3.96	$4	+$0.04	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
AN Anon455<$100	Jazzavg 62¢	$3.22	$3.74	+$0.52	50% 563-572 (1135)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$1,150.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$14.68

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

NotJumpARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$525

Value

$546

PnL

+$21

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Invested

$362.97

Value

$385.87

PnL

+$22.9

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Jazz$228.4864¢+$73.18

Spurs$134.4924.8¢-$50.28

38791873984189

Jazz

Invested

$200.67

Value

$255.63

PnL

+$55.96

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

justaluckydude

Jazz

Invested

$189.61

Value

$203.76

PnL

+$14.15

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Spurs

Invested

$399.15

Value

$141.4

PnL

+$8.95

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

saintaphextwinCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$77

Value

$70.4

PnL

-$6.6

Record

15-190 (205)

SnakeBall<$100

Jazz

Invested

$43.05

Value

$46.6

PnL

+$3.55

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$41

Value

$32

PnL

-$9

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

ferdinand2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$18.7

Value

$17.16

PnL

-$1.54

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$16.64

Value

$16.72

PnL

+$2.08

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

SunlineTicker<$100

Jazz

Invested

$12.2

Value

$14.16

PnL

+$1.97

Record

69%

1751-790 (2541)

6512395314597884<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.96

Value

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Anon455<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.22

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.52

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.