Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 239.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$25.31

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 96.7¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL+$92.41

Over3 traders

Total Value$41.29

Total Shares602

Combined PnL-$67.11

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 78¢	$475.73	$503.42	+$50.01	53% 330-294 (624)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 83¢	$200.86	$232.32	+$9.68	53% 214-189 (403)
AN Anon455	Underavg 77¢	$239.13	$208.04	+$23.91	48% 86-95 (181)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 84¢	$168	$168	+$0	43% 131-176 (307)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 81.6¢	$81.69	$75.08	+$8.81	49% 193-198 (391)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 19¢	$207.24	$23.1	-$2.07	49% 427-449 (876)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 16.4¢	$82.37	$17.54	-$64.84	52% 287-270 (557)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$0.85	$0.65	-$0.2	28% 130-331 (461)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$475.73

Value

$503.42

PnL

+$50.01

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$200.86

Value

$232.32

PnL

+$9.68

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$239.13

Value

$208.04

PnL

+$23.91

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$168

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$81.69

Value

$75.08

PnL

+$8.81

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$207.24

Value

$23.1

PnL

-$2.07

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.37

Value

$17.54

PnL

-$64.84

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.2

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.