Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 229.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$13.15

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 86¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,510

Combined PnL+$110.52

Over7 traders

Total Value$195.79

Total Shares824

Combined PnL-$123.67

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 72¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$48.75	52% 287-270 (557)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 69.5¢	$680.71	$708.47	+$47.01	53% 330-294 (624)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.5¢	$445.82	$516.52	+$89.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 23.9¢	$234.89	$191.95	-$42.94
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 66¢	$465	$503.88	+$38.88	43% 131-176 (307)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53.1¢	$280.41	$303.3	+$22.9	29% 32-78 (110)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 47¢	$101.46	$85.29	-$16.18	48% 77-84 (161)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 26¢	$181.34	$39.23	-$63.37	49% 427-449 (876)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 26.9¢	$67.71	$31.66	-$17.15	49% 193-198 (391)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 36.9¢	$42.77	$19.74	-$23.02	53% 214-189 (403)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$20.42	$16.78	-$3.64	28% 130-331 (461)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$1.79	$1.56	-$0.23	52% 119-110 (229)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$1.6	$1.53	-$0.08	18% 55-248 (303)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,399.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$48.75

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$680.71

Value

$708.47

PnL

+$47.01

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

Both legs:

Under$445.8269.5¢+$89.95

Over$234.8923.9¢-$42.94

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$465

Value

$503.88

PnL

+$38.88

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$280.41

Value

$303.3

PnL

+$22.9

Record

29%

32-78 (110)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$101.46

Value

$85.29

PnL

-$16.18

Record

48%

77-84 (161)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$181.34

Value

$39.23

PnL

-$63.37

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.71

Value

$31.66

PnL

-$17.15

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.77

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$23.02

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.42

Value

$16.78

PnL

-$3.64

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.08

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.