Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 223.5

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (59%) · Under at 89¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 10

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

$968.28

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 88.5¢

+77% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 17 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares16,054

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Over7 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares17,123

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Under — 59%Over — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Under 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 53¢	$3.4K	$4.9K	+$1.4K	— 6-11 (17)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 47¢	$2.5K	$3.6K	+$1.1K	55% 1053-856 (1909)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 39.6¢	$3.8K	$3.5K	-$346.37	53% 218-191 (409)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 47¢	$4.6K	$3.4K	$-1.2K	28% 122-309 (431)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 24.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$65.78	51% 289-274 (563)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.6¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$550.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.7¢	$1.2K	$632.57	-$615.92
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 48.8¢	$923.08	$842.19	-$80.89	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.8¢	$383.2	$477.01	+$93.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.8¢	$539.88	$365.17	-$174.7
LI Limousin	Underavg 48¢	$473.62	$666.22	+$217.28	26% 127-364 (491)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53.4¢	$498.38	$549.06	+$60.28	48% 436-463 (899)
BI biying88888	Underavg 46¢	$290.4	$490.05	+$199.65	19% 30-131 (161)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 43.3¢	$1.1K	$285.49	-$789.72	51% 507-483 (990)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 50.6¢	$180.07	$236.35	+$64.81	57% 104-80 (184)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 47.7¢	$146.57	$234.71	+$88.14	28% 131-332 (463)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 46¢	$142.9	$226.96	+$84.06	48% 77-85 (162)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 45.8¢	$69.72	$102.83	+$38.44	26% 122-345 (467)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 46¢	$60.03	$88.18	+$29.45	27% 128-352 (480)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 25.9¢	$79.31	$51.98	-$0.83	49% 194-203 (397)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.8¢	$18.45	$29.48	+$12.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.9¢	$46.7	$22.5	-$13.62
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$11	$12.5	+$1.5	46% 178-209 (387)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$8.8	$11	+$2.2	55% 78-63 (141)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 39.8¢	$21.69	$8.7	-$0.04	56% 139-108 (247)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.28	$1.5	-$0.78	18% 55-248 (303)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$3,417.66

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

—

6-11 (17)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,518.62

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

1053-856 (1909)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$3,823.29

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$346.37

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$4,618.39

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,424.07

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$65.78

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

Both legs:

Under$1,175.5859.6¢+$550.14

Over$1,248.4924.7¢-$615.92

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$923.08

Value

$842.19

PnL

-$80.89

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Under$383.253.8¢+$93.81

Over$539.8848.8¢-$174.7

Limousin

Under

Invested

$473.62

Value

$666.22

PnL

+$217.28

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$498.38

Value

$549.06

PnL

+$60.28

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$290.4

Value

$490.05

PnL

+$199.65

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,075.21

Value

$285.49

PnL

-$789.72

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$180.07

Value

$236.35

PnL

+$64.81

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$146.57

Value

$234.71

PnL

+$88.14

Record

28%

131-332 (463)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$142.9

Value

$226.96

PnL

+$84.06

Record

48%

77-85 (162)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$69.72

Value

$102.83

PnL

+$38.44

Record

26%

122-345 (467)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$60.03

Value

$88.18

PnL

+$29.45

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$79.31

Value

$51.98

PnL

-$0.83

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

Both legs:

Under$18.4554.8¢+$12.79

Over$46.725.9¢-$13.62

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

46%

178-209 (387)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.8

Value

$11

PnL

+$2.2

Record

55%

78-63 (141)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.69

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.04

Record

56%

139-108 (247)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.28

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.78

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 17 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Under 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.