Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 221.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 84¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 10

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.6K

Combined PnL

$862.86

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 83.5¢

+62% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares23,090

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Over2 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares18,232

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 51¢	$9.5K	$11.2K	+$2.4K	— 6-11 (17)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49¢	$9.1K	$7.6K	$-1.8K	28% 122-309 (431)
RN1	Underavg 57.9¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$123.5	51% 289-274 (563)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 36.7¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$94.07	53% 218-191 (409)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.5¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$693.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.7¢	$1.5K	$679.08	-$787.61
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 48.9¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$117.36	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.6¢	$660.84	$1.1K	+$401.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.9¢	$795.98	$276.9	-$519.08
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 48.8¢	$822.05	$642.23	-$142.41	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.5¢	$229.29	$414.98	+$199.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.8¢	$569	$227.25	-$341.75
LI Limousin	Underavg 43.5¢	$263.51	$363.51	+$115.15	26% 127-364 (491)
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 52¢	$416	$320	-$156	19% 30-131 (161)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 48.8¢	$161.02	$191.94	+$43.76	57% 104-80 (184)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 41.3¢	$351.07	$189.68	-$112.21	48% 436-463 (899)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.7¢	$70.61	$107.07	-$5.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.3¢	$200.62	$82.61	-$106.81
MA MadridTime	Underavg 38.1¢	$66.44	$116.94	+$50.49	26% 122-345 (467)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 44¢	$75.95	$99.25	+$24.83	27% 128-352 (480)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 45.1¢	$17.82	$14.24	+$5.13	56% 139-108 (247)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 66.7¢	$151.12	$5.73	-$6.48	49% 194-203 (397)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$9,523.79

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

—

6-11 (17)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$9,084.49

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,912.11

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$123.5

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,659.51

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$94.07

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Both legs:

Under$1,192.8252.5¢+$693.54

Over$1,466.6936.7¢-$787.61

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,456.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$117.36

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Under$660.8451.6¢+$401.72

Over$795.9848.9¢-$519.08

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$822.05

Value

$642.23

PnL

-$142.41

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Under$229.2944.5¢+$199.35

Over$56948.8¢-$341.75

Limousin

Under

Invested

$263.51

Value

$363.51

PnL

+$115.15

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$416

Value

$320

PnL

-$156

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$161.02

Value

$191.94

PnL

+$43.76

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$351.07

Value

$189.68

PnL

-$112.21

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Both legs:

Under$70.6154.7¢-$5.4

Over$200.6241.3¢-$106.81

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$66.44

Value

$116.94

PnL

+$50.49

Record

26%

122-345 (467)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$75.95

Value

$99.25

PnL

+$24.83

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$17.82

Value

$14.24

PnL

+$5.13

Record

56%

139-108 (247)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$151.12

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$6.48

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.