Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 215.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 59¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 10

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

-$788.17

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 58.5¢

+22% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,294

Combined PnL+$135.61

Under7 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares13,964

Combined PnL-$923.78

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 51.2¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$380.12	57% 104-80 (184)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 48.5¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$661.63	28% 122-309 (431)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 55.3¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$91.89	53% 218-191 (409)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.3¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$172.83
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.9¢	$594.49	$859.2	+$264.71
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 49¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$379.9	43% 247-324 (571)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 58.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$69.85	51% 289-274 (563)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$108.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.4¢	$223.41	$262.45	+$39.04
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 40.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$190.77	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.9¢	$617.56	$777.03	-$104.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.7¢	$539.87	$453.67	-$86.2
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 61.6¢	$1.1K	$867.32	-$246.56	51% 507-483 (990)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 49.6¢	$787.57	$618.99	-$97.16	26% 122-345 (467)
BI biying88888	Underavg 43¢	$430	$585	+$155	19% 30-131 (161)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 55.2¢	$326.7	$278.26	-$9.08	48% 436-463 (899)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.2¢	$170.82	$150.02	-$20.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.3¢	$115.18	$128.24	+$11.72
LI Limousin	Underavg 44.5¢	$204	$268.19	+$64.19	26% 127-364 (491)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 45¢	$220.53	$215.68	-$4.85	28% 131-332 (463)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 54.8¢	$87.57	$97.4	+$4.24	28% 100-254 (354)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 54.7¢	$73.46	$43.68	-$2.34	49% 194-203 (397)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 53.1¢	$20.51	$21.23	+$0.14	22% 85-296 (381)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 41¢	$4.11	$1.08	+$0.57	56% 139-108 (247)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$2,219.49

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$380.12

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$3,243.11

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$661.63

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,253.14

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$91.89

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Both legs:

Over$1,658.6555.3¢-$172.83

Under$594.4934.9¢+$264.71

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$1,861.51

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$379.9

Record

43%

247-324 (571)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,340.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$69.85

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

Both legs:

Over$1,116.8958.2¢-$108.88

Under$223.4140.4¢+$39.04

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,157.43

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$190.77

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Under$617.5640.9¢-$104.57

Over$539.8757.7¢-$86.2

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,113.88

Value

$867.32

PnL

-$246.56

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$787.57

Value

$618.99

PnL

-$97.16

Record

26%

122-345 (467)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$430

Value

$585

PnL

+$155

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$326.7

Value

$278.26

PnL

-$9.08

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Both legs:

Over$170.8255.2¢-$20.79

Under$115.1846.3¢+$11.72

Limousin

Under

Invested

$204

Value

$268.19

PnL

+$64.19

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$220.53

Value

$215.68

PnL

-$4.85

Record

28%

131-332 (463)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.57

Value

$97.4

PnL

+$4.24

Record

28%

100-254 (354)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.46

Value

$43.68

PnL

-$2.34

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.51

Value

$21.23

PnL

+$0.14

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$4.11

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.57

Record

56%

139-108 (247)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.