Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 209.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 76¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 75%
$1.2K
-$37.05
81¢ → 75.5¢
-7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 76%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 84¢ | $560.56 | $526.01 | -$34.55 | 51% 289-274 (563) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 77.8¢ | $430.55 | $428.16 | -$2.39 | 53% 218-191 (409) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Overavg 84¢ | $102.82 | $95.14 | -$7.68 | 2% 10-395 (405) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $86.49 | $83.88 | -$2.61 | 42% 132-179 (311) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $18.51 | $25.45 | +$7.52 | 51% 507-483 (990) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 73.4¢ | $19.18 | $19.85 | +$1.06 | 48% 436-463 (899) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $16.98 | $18.43 | +$1.46 | 49% 194-203 (397) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $0.32 | $0.48 | +$0.15 | 28% 100-254 (354) |
RN1Invested
$560.56
Value
$526.01
PnL
-$34.55
Record
51%
289-274 (563)
Invested
$430.55
Value
$428.16
PnL
-$2.39
Record
53%
218-191 (409)
Invested
$102.82
Value
$95.14
PnL
-$7.68
Record
2%
10-395 (405)
Invested
$86.49
Value
$83.88
PnL
-$2.61
Record
42%
132-179 (311)
Invested
$18.51
Value
$25.45
PnL
+$7.52
Record
51%
507-483 (990)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$19.85
PnL
+$1.06
Record
48%
436-463 (899)
Invested
$16.98
Value
$18.43
PnL
+$1.46
Record
49%
194-203 (397)
Invested
$0.32
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0.15
Record
28%
100-254 (354)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.