Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 207.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 81¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$28.62

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 81¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$846.89

Total Shares913

Combined PnL+$28.62

Under3 traders

Total Value$44.49

Total Shares285

Combined PnL-$0

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 82.3¢	$480.67	$483.85	+$3.18	51% 289-274 (563)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 82.9¢	$473.33	$479.02	-$8.35	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Over leg	Overavg 82.9¢	$332.55	$346.84	+$0.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 17.9¢	$175.05	$132.18	-$8.6
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 77¢	$196.46	$214.32	+$17.86	57% 104-80 (184)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 78¢	$77.86	$83.85	+$4.49	42% 132-179 (311)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 78¢	$60.24	$64.87	+$3.09	28% 100-254 (354)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$36.12	$36.12	+$0	53% 218-191 (409)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$6.88	$6.88	+$0	49% 194-203 (397)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$1.5	$1.5	-$0	48% 436-463 (899)

RN1

Over

Invested

$480.67

Value

$483.85

PnL

+$3.18

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$473.33

Value

$479.02

PnL

-$8.35

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Over$332.5582.9¢+$0.25

Under$175.0517.9¢-$8.6

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$196.46

Value

$214.32

PnL

+$17.86

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$77.86

Value

$83.85

PnL

+$4.49

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$60.24

Value

$64.87

PnL

+$3.09

Record

28%

100-254 (354)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.12

Value

$36.12

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.88

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.