Spread: Spurs (-29.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (60%) · Suns at 78¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs23¢Suns77¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 60%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

-$20.9

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

3 of 5 top traders (60%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs23%

Suns78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,575

Combined PnL-$19.84

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$6.38

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$1.06

Suns — 60%Spurs — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Sunsavg 77.4¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$136	53% 218-191 (409)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 77.4¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$40.28
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 25.1¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$95.73
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Sunsavg 63.7¢	$4.5K	$3.7K	+$336.59	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 63.7¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$390.78
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 24.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$54.19
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Spursavg 63.3¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$394	22% 85-296 (381)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 61.2¢	$691.83	$666.48	-$25.35
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 63.3¢	$809.67	$524.13	-$368.65
RN1	Sunsavg 71.6¢	$841	$898.88	+$57.88	51% 289-274 (563)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Spursavg 57¢	$421.44	$429.68	+$8.24	28% 122-309 (431)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 57¢	$298.44	$303.68	+$5.24
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 41¢	$123	$126	+$3
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sunsavg 85¢	$345.58	$349.33	+$3.74	48% 436-463 (899)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 85¢	$272.85	$189.39	+$27.29
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 47¢	$183.48	$159.94	-$23.54
SU suitcase6628	Sunsavg 92¢	$322	$308	-$33.25	62% 79-49 (128)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Spursavg 47.8¢	$255.65	$225.89	-$29.76	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 47.8¢	$151.5	$129.87	-$21.62
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 85¢	$138.32	$96.01	-$8.14
PA Pan9X	Sunsavg 85¢	$134.03	$56.64	-$44.47	49% 194-203 (397)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Spursavg 37¢	$4.07	$3.58	-$0.5	55% 78-63 (141)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Spursavg 39¢	$3.37	$2.8	-$0.56	56% 139-108 (247)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$5,118.82

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$136

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Both legs:

Suns$3,655.4477.4¢-$40.28

Spurs$1,463.3825.1¢-$95.73

FlaznorpARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$4,503.66

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$336.59

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Suns$1,987.4563.7¢+$390.78

Spurs$1,388.4624.5¢-$54.19

takeormakeARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1,717.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$394

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

Both legs:

Suns$691.8361.2¢-$25.35

Spurs$809.6763.3¢-$368.65

RN1

Suns

Invested

$841

Value

$898.88

PnL

+$57.88

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$421.44

Value

$429.68

PnL

+$8.24

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

Both legs:

Spurs$298.4457¢+$5.24

Suns$12341¢+$3

38791873984189ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$345.58

Value

$349.33

PnL

+$3.74

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Both legs:

Suns$272.8585¢+$27.29

Spurs$183.4847¢-$23.54

suitcase6628

Suns

Invested

$322

Value

$308

PnL

-$33.25

Record

62%

79-49 (128)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$255.65

Value

$225.89

PnL

-$29.76

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Spurs$151.547.8¢-$21.62

Suns$138.3285¢-$8.14

Pan9X

Suns

Invested

$134.03

Value

$56.64

PnL

-$44.47

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

lryyyCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$4.07

Value

$3.58

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

78-63 (141)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$3.37

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.56

Record

56%

139-108 (247)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

3 of 5 top traders (60%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.