Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spurs, while the market favors Suns (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Spurs (-25.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (57%) · Spurs at 44¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs44¢Suns56¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

$532.45

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 44¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs44%

Suns56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs4 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,405

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Suns3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares10,102

Combined PnL-$495.21

Spurs — 57%Suns — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Spursavg 49¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$137.08	28% 122-309 (431)
LU luckycat888888	Sunsavg 50.9¢	$5.1K	$4.6K	-$494.48	4% 3-72 (75)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Spursavg 31.2¢	$1.6K	$2.4K	+$882.88	51% 507-483 (990)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Sunsavg 71.1¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$469.37	53% 218-191 (409)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 71.1¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$524.9
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 48.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$55.53
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Spursavg 47.5¢	$661.17	$648.79	-$12.38	22% 85-296 (381)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 47.5¢	$429.05	$487.79	+$58.74
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 66.3¢	$232.12	$161	-$71.12
RN1ARB<$100	Sunsavg 74.2¢	$789.74	$529.36	-$219.38	51% 289-274 (563)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 74.2¢	$499.13	$309.58	-$222.71
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 53.2¢	$216.45	$219.78	+$3.33
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Sunsavg 55.3¢	$588.31	$481.61	-$106.7	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49.7¢	$218.29	$357.71	+$139.42
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 55.3¢	$370.03	$123.9	-$246.13
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Spursavg 49¢	$83.19	$101.19	+$18	48% 436-463 (899)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49¢	$58.8	$60.6	+$1.8
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 68.2¢	$55.96	$40.59	+$16.2
CI cigarettes<$100	Sunsavg 41¢	$41.1	$40.66	-$0.69	46% 178-209 (387)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Spursavg 49.7¢	$47.94	$29.75	-$4.43	49% 194-203 (397)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Spursavg 10.9¢	$7.54	$19.67	+$12.13	40% 29-43 (72)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Sunsavg 48¢	$1	$0.96	-$0.04	5% 12-213 (225)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Spurs

Invested

$4,477.93

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$137.08

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

luckycat888888

Suns

Invested

$5,094.48

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$494.48

Record

3-72 (75)

FlaznorpCTR

Spurs

Invested

$1,604.39

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$882.88

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$2,751.59

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$469.37

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Both legs:

Suns$1,688.4871.1¢-$524.9

Spurs$1,063.1148.5¢+$55.53

takeormakeARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$661.17

Value

$648.79

PnL

-$12.38

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

Both legs:

Spurs$429.0547.5¢+$58.74

Suns$232.1266.3¢-$71.12

RN1ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$789.74

Value

$529.36

PnL

-$219.38

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

Both legs:

Suns$499.1374.2¢-$222.71

Spurs$216.4553.2¢+$3.33

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$588.31

Value

$481.61

PnL

-$106.7

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Spurs$218.2949.7¢+$139.42

Suns$370.0355.3¢-$246.13

38791873984189ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$83.19

Value

$101.19

PnL

+$18

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Both legs:

Spurs$58.849¢+$1.8

Suns$55.9668.2¢+$16.2

cigarettes<$100

Suns

Invested

$41.1

Value

$40.66

PnL

-$0.69

Record

46%

178-209 (387)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$47.94

Value

$29.75

PnL

-$4.43

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$7.54

Value

$19.67

PnL

+$12.13

Record

40%

29-43 (72)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Suns

Invested

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

12-213 (225)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.