Spread: Spurs (-17.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (67%) · Spurs at 97¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs97¢Suns3¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 96.9¢

+63% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs97%

Suns3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs8 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares10,923

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Suns4 traders

Total Value$796.15

Total Shares2,147

Combined PnL-$118.72

Spurs — 67%Suns — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 53.1¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$402.32	53% 218-191 (409)
FL Flaznorp	Spursavg 63.6¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$359.4	51% 507-483 (990)
RN1	Spursavg 57.4¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$625.95	51% 289-274 (563)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 66¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$76.25	42% 132-179 (311)
TA takeormake	Spursavg 69.2¢	$753.4	$1.1K	+$322.09	22% 85-296 (381)
BI biying88888CTR	Sunsavg 56¢	$784.25	$759.99	-$24.26	19% 30-131 (161)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Spursavg 51¢	$442.96	$533.88	-$37.38	28% 122-309 (431)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 51¢	$335.53	$348.69	-$115.13
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 46.8¢	$184.27	$185.19	+$77.75
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 48.6¢	$137.88	$195.08	+$72.38	48% 436-463 (899)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Spursavg 44.9¢	$83.52	$117.52	+$26.71	57% 104-80 (184)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Spursavg 92¢	$82.8	$86.58	+$3.78	62% 79-49 (128)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 4¢	$43.7	$14.54	+$25.95	49% 194-203 (397)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Sunsavg 36¢	$78.48	$11.34	-$67.14	34% 111-220 (331)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Sunsavg 35¢	$65.42	$10.28	-$53.27	28% 131-332 (463)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$2,927.06

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$402.32

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Flaznorp

Spurs

Invested

$2,340.55

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$359.4

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$1,645.29

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$625.95

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$1,164.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$76.25

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

takeormake

Spurs

Invested

$753.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$322.09

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

biying88888CTR

Suns

Invested

$784.25

Value

$759.99

PnL

-$24.26

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$442.96

Value

$533.88

PnL

-$37.38

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

Both legs:

Spurs$335.5351¢-$115.13

Suns$184.2746.8¢+$77.75

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$137.88

Value

$195.08

PnL

+$72.38

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Spurs

Invested

$83.52

Value

$117.52

PnL

+$26.71

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

suitcase6628<$100

Spurs

Invested

$82.8

Value

$86.58

PnL

+$3.78

Record

62%

79-49 (128)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$43.7

Value

$14.54

PnL

+$25.95

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$78.48

Value

$11.34

PnL

-$67.14

Record

34%

111-220 (331)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$65.42

Value

$10.28

PnL

-$53.27

Record

28%

131-332 (463)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.