Spread: Spurs (-13.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (73%) · Spurs at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs97¢Suns3¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 73%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$406.24

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 96.9¢

+47% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs97%

Suns3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,327

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Suns3 traders

Total Value$140.58

Total Shares3,404

Combined PnL-$826.43

Spurs — 73%Suns — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 68.3¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$249.15	53% 218-191 (409)
RN1	Spursavg 57.2¢	$994.11	$1.6K	+$615.94	51% 289-274 (563)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 72.4¢	$618.53	$749.69	+$131.16	42% 132-179 (311)
TA takeormake	Spursavg 74.8¢	$547.75	$725.38	+$177.62	22% 85-296 (381)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 58.8¢	$55.98	$83.26	+$27.28	49% 194-203 (397)
38 38791873984189<$100	Spursavg 48¢	$49.92	$70.72	+$20.8	48% 436-463 (899)
CI cigarettes<$100	Spursavg 85¢	$62.5	$64.71	+$2.21	46% 178-209 (387)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Sunsavg 49¢	$53.53	$56.41	+$2.88	27% 128-352 (480)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Sunsavg 27.5¢	$859.57	$48.46	-$811.11	51% 507-483 (990)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sunsavg 48¢	$53.91	$35.71	-$18.2	26% 127-364 (491)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Spursavg 48¢	$20.46	$28.98	+$8.52	28% 122-309 (431)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$1,456.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$249.15

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$994.11

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$615.94

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$618.53

Value

$749.69

PnL

+$131.16

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

takeormake

Spurs

Invested

$547.75

Value

$725.38

PnL

+$177.62

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$55.98

Value

$83.26

PnL

+$27.28

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

38791873984189<$100

Spurs

Invested

$49.92

Value

$70.72

PnL

+$20.8

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

cigarettes<$100

Spurs

Invested

$62.5

Value

$64.71

PnL

+$2.21

Record

46%

178-209 (387)

VenusianCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$53.53

Value

$56.41

PnL

+$2.88

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

FlaznorpCTR

Suns

Invested

$859.57

Value

$48.46

PnL

-$811.11

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

LimousinCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$53.91

Value

$35.71

PnL

-$18.2

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Spurs

Invested

$20.46

Value

$28.98

PnL

+$8.52

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.