Spread: Spurs (-11.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (75%) · Spurs at 99¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs>99¢Suns<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 75%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$385.86

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 99.2¢

+36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs99%

Suns1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs6 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,801

Combined PnL+$393.32

Suns2 traders

Total Value$14.82

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$7.46

Spurs — 75%Suns — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpurs 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSuns 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Spursavg 78.9¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$162.05	51% 507-483 (990)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 71.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$123.36	53% 218-191 (409)
RN1	Spursavg 68.6¢	$954.89	$1.2K	+$289.14	51% 289-274 (563)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 66.7¢	$755.76	$849.34	+$93.58	42% 132-179 (311)
PA Pan9X	Spursavg 78.3¢	$129.98	$77.14	+$34.28	49% 194-203 (397)
38 38791873984189<$100	Spursavg 77.1¢	$59.82	$74.82	+$15.01	48% 436-463 (899)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 40¢	$18.72	$13.64	-$6.68	22% 85-296 (381)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Sunsavg 59¢	$1.95	$1.18	-$0.78	55% 1053-856 (1909)

Flaznorp

Spurs

Invested

$2,532.82

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$162.05

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$2,008.58

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$123.36

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$954.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$289.14

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$755.76

Value

$849.34

PnL

+$93.58

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Pan9X

Spurs

Invested

$129.98

Value

$77.14

PnL

+$34.28

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

38791873984189<$100

Spurs

Invested

$59.82

Value

$74.82

PnL

+$15.01

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$18.72

Value

$13.64

PnL

-$6.68

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.78

Record

55%

1053-856 (1909)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpurs 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSuns 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.