Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Spurs (99%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (38%) · Suns at 1.3¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs99¢Suns1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

-$910.06

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 1.3¢

-98% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 99%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs99%

Suns1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs8 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares8,365

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Suns5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares14,525

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Spurs — 62%Suns — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSuns 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSuns 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 55.7¢	$2.4K	$3.0K	+$591.32	53% 218-191 (409)
FL Flaznorp	Spursavg 70.7¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$375.38	51% 507-483 (990)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sunsavg 55¢	$4.7K	$2.8K	$-2.0K	55% 1053-856 (1909)
RN1	Spursavg 61.8¢	$943.91	$1.2K	+$288.09	51% 289-274 (563)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 65.5¢	$453.91	$550.22	+$96.31	42% 132-179 (311)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Sunsavg 55¢	$711.85	$455.56	-$256.3	47% 87-97 (184)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 46¢	$161.85	$295.56	+$133.7
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 55¢	$550	$160	-$390
VeryLucky888	Spursavg 43¢	$172	$312	+$132	52% 120-112 (232)
VI vibing123CTR	Sunsavg 55¢	$475	$190	-$285	62% 870-532 (1402)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sunsavg 37.3¢	$109.36	$80.35	-$29.01	48% 436-463 (899)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 37.3¢	$85.9	$50.6	-$35.3
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 44¢	$16.78	$29.75	+$6.29
SN SnakeBall<$100	Spursavg 43¢	$55.88	$77.95	+$22.07	48% 77-85 (162)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Spursavg 49¢	$46.12	$73.41	+$10.82	28% 122-309 (431)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Sunsavg 55¢	$139.62	$70.92	-$68.7	34% 111-220 (331)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Sunsavg 57¢	$164	$66	-$98	5% 29-539 (568)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 62.1¢	$47.72	$44	-$3.72	49% 194-203 (397)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 41¢	$29.18	$18.11	-$12.55	22% 85-296 (381)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$2,407.84

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$591.32

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Flaznorp

Spurs

Invested

$2,419.68

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$375.38

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Suns

Invested

$4,737.27

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

55%

1053-856 (1909)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$943.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$288.09

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$453.91

Value

$550.22

PnL

+$96.31

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Anon455ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$711.85

Value

$455.56

PnL

-$256.3

Record

47%

87-97 (184)

Both legs:

Spurs$161.8546¢+$133.7

Suns$55055¢-$390

VeryLucky888

Spurs

Invested

$172

Value

$312

PnL

+$132

Record

52%

120-112 (232)

vibing123CTR

Suns

Invested

$475

Value

$190

PnL

-$285

Record

62%

870-532 (1402)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$109.36

Value

$80.35

PnL

-$29.01

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Both legs:

Invested

$55.88

Value

$77.95

PnL

+$22.07

Record

48%

77-85 (162)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Spurs

Invested

$46.12

Value

$73.41

PnL

+$10.82

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Suns

Invested

$139.62

Value

$70.92

PnL

-$68.7

Record

34%

111-220 (331)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Suns

Invested

$164

Value

$66

PnL

-$98

Record

29-539 (568)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$47.72

Value

$44

PnL

-$3.72

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$29.18

Value

$18.11

PnL

-$12.55

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 99%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSuns 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSuns 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4045.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

4145.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.