Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 57¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$18.42

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 57¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,510

Combined PnL-$18.26

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,212

Combined PnL+$36.67

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 64.7¢	$853	$827.27	-$25.72	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
RN1CTR	Overavg 45.8¢	$386.86	$418.17	+$31.31	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
VE Venusian	Underavg 50¢	$333.76	$347.11	+$13.35	31% 411-924 (1335)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 49.6¢	$323.88	$329.8	+$5.92	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 37¢	$260.84	$260.84	-$0	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 72.2¢	$392.9	$226.41	-$71.91	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72.2¢	$227.46	$159.09	-$101.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.8¢	$35.04	$67.32	+$29.98
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 50¢	$216.12	$211.8	-$4.32	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 50¢	$80	$78.4	-$1.6	37% 121-203 (324)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 77¢	$60.59	$54.13	-$1.46	49% 693-734 (1427)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.8¢	$21.32	$33.84	+$12.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 77¢	$31.57	$20.29	-$13.98
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 61¢	$4.69	$4.73	+$0.04	53% 290-259 (549)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 29.8¢	$8.06	$3.41	-$0.55	55% 683-554 (1237)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$853

Value

$827.27

PnL

-$25.72

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$386.86

Value

$418.17

PnL

+$31.31

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$333.76

Value

$347.11

PnL

+$13.35

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$323.88

Value

$329.8

PnL

+$5.92

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$260.84

Value

$260.84

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$392.9

Value

$226.41

PnL

-$71.91

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Under$227.4672.2¢-$101.89

Over$35.0425.8¢+$29.98

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$216.12

Value

$211.8

PnL

-$4.32

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$80

Value

$78.4

PnL

-$1.6

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$60.59

Value

$54.13

PnL

-$1.46

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Both legs:

Over$21.3231.8¢+$12.52

Under$31.5777¢-$13.98

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.06

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$0.55

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.