Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$68.68

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 53¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,557

Combined PnL+$97.65

Under6 traders

Total Value$924.49

Total Shares2,114

Combined PnL-$28.98

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 52.6¢	$634.64	$694.23	+$59.59	55% 719-584 (1303)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 52.7¢	$547.3	$564.78	+$17.48	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$317.15	$309.13	-$8.01	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$263.88	$246.65	-$17.23	37% 121-203 (324)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 53.1¢	$272.92	$243.21	-$29.7	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.1¢	$149.81	$158.07	+$8.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.6¢	$123.11	$85.14	-$37.96
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 44¢	$115.61	$114.3	-$1.31	30% 402-921 (1323)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$111.53	$110.77	-$0.76	31% 412-920 (1332)
74 0x7462...3ac3CTR	Underavg 44¢	$100	$98.86	-$1.14	—
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 36¢	$68.4	$83.6	+$15.2	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
5D 0x5d40...ba95<$100	Overavg 52¢	$57.4	$60.16	+$2.76	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$45.3	$44.79	-$0.51	31% 412-897 (1309)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 32¢	$3.2	$4.4	+$1.2	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 33¢	$1.78	$2.38	+$0.59	55% 683-554 (1237)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 33¢	$1.52	$2.02	+$0.51	49% 693-734 (1427)
FO forecastication4<$100	Overavg 33¢	$0.99	$1.31	+$0.33	19% 50-220 (270)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$634.64

Value

$694.23

PnL

+$59.59

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$547.3

Value

$564.78

PnL

+$17.48

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$317.15

Value

$309.13

PnL

-$8.01

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$263.88

Value

$246.65

PnL

-$17.23

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$272.92

Value

$243.21

PnL

-$29.7

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Over$149.8153.1¢+$8.26

Under$123.1163.6¢-$37.96

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$115.61

Value

$114.3

PnL

-$1.31

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$111.53

Value

$110.77

PnL

-$0.76

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

0x7462...3ac3CTR

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$98.86

PnL

-$1.14

Record

—

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$68.4

Value

$83.6

PnL

+$15.2

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x5d40...ba95<$100

Over

Invested

$57.4

Value

$60.16

PnL

+$2.76

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.3

Value

$44.79

PnL

-$0.51

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$1.2

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.59

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$1.52

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.51

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

forecastication4<$100

Over

Invested

$0.99

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.33

Record

19%

50-220 (270)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.