Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (46%) · Over at 57¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$429.98

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 57¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,224

Combined PnL+$304.77

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares7,937

Combined PnL-$734.75

Over — 46%Under — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 48¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$30.73	53% 290-259 (549)
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 52¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$435.06	30% 16-37 (53)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$228.07	55% 719-584 (1303)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 55.1¢	$637.65	$671.65	+$34	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$712.96	$532.76	-$180.2	37% 121-203 (324)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$302.9	$253.51	-$49.39	30% 402-921 (1323)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 42.9¢	$210.14	$228.76	+$18.62	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.9¢	$128.64	$144	+$15.36
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$81.5	$84.76	+$3.26
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$246.65	$214.56	-$32.09	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$131.45	$114.72	-$16.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$115.2	$99.84	-$15.36
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 43.1¢	$220.19	$194.03	-$26.16	31% 411-924 (1335)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$212.25	$185.72	-$26.53	31% 412-920 (1332)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 48.5¢	$169.21	$166.93	-$2.28	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$165.67	$153.26	-$12.41	31% 412-897 (1309)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 50¢	$81.5	$101.88	+$20.38	38% 222-363 (585)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$78	$73	-$5	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 49¢	$91.03	$69.83	-$6.12	49% 693-734 (1427)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$2,069.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$30.73

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

marvelousmarvinCTR

Under

Invested

$2,262.32

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$435.06

Record

30%

16-37 (53)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,311.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$228.07

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$637.65

Value

$671.65

PnL

+$34

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$712.96

Value

$532.76

PnL

-$180.2

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$302.9

Value

$253.51

PnL

-$49.39

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$210.14

Value

$228.76

PnL

+$18.62

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Over$128.6442.9¢+$15.36

Under$81.550¢+$3.26

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$246.65

Value

$214.56

PnL

-$32.09

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Over$131.4555¢-$16.73

Under$115.260¢-$15.36

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$220.19

Value

$194.03

PnL

-$26.16

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$212.25

Value

$185.72

PnL

-$26.53

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$169.21

Value

$166.93

PnL

-$2.28

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$165.67

Value

$153.26

PnL

-$12.41

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$81.5

Value

$101.88

PnL

+$20.38

Record

38%

222-363 (585)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78

Value

$73

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$91.03

Value

$69.83

PnL

-$6.12

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.