Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 66¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$79.32

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 65.5¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,269

Combined PnL+$322.43

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,866

Combined PnL-$243.11

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 51.4¢	$915.76	$1.0K	+$100.48	55% 719-584 (1303)
RN1	Overavg 51.5¢	$667.6	$882.22	+$214.62	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$819.38	$715.23	-$104.14	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 46.4¢	$496.7	$357.53	-$41.39	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.4¢	$293.34	$218.06	-$75.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.6¢	$109.9	$139.47	+$33.89
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$296.49	$316.14	+$19.65	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$211.99	$227.99	+$16
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.2¢	$84.5	$88.15	+$3.65
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 43.5¢	$282.03	$223.56	-$58.47	31% 412-920 (1332)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$192.33	$144.83	-$47.5	31% 412-897 (1309)
5D 0x5d40...ba95<$100	Overavg 50¢	$80	$82.4	+$2.4	—
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$80	$54.4	-$25.6	37% 121-203 (324)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$47.96	$37.61	-$10.36	38% 222-363 (585)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 40¢	$11.6	$16.53	+$4.93	49% 693-734 (1427)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$13.3	$16.07	+$2.76	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.15	+$0.2	55% 683-554 (1237)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$915.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$100.48

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

RN1

Over

Invested

$667.6

Value

$882.22

PnL

+$214.62

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$819.38

Value

$715.23

PnL

-$104.14

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$496.7

Value

$357.53

PnL

-$41.39

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Under$293.3446.4¢-$75.28

Over$109.951.6¢+$33.89

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$296.49

Value

$316.14

PnL

+$19.65

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Over$211.9953¢+$16

Under$84.541.2¢+$3.65

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$282.03

Value

$223.56

PnL

-$58.47

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$192.33

Value

$144.83

PnL

-$47.5

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

0x5d40...ba95<$100

Over

Invested

$80

Value

$82.4

PnL

+$2.4

Record

—

biying88888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$80

Value

$54.4

PnL

-$25.6

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.96

Value

$37.61

PnL

-$10.36

Record

38%

222-363 (585)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$11.6

Value

$16.53

PnL

+$4.93

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.3

Value

$16.07

PnL

+$2.76

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.