Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$155.59

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 67.5¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,882

Combined PnL+$96.34

Under6 traders

Total Value$555.88

Total Shares1,726

Combined PnL-$251.93

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 54.1¢	$613.44	$685.67	+$72.22	55% 719-584 (1303)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 46¢	$565.79	$375.14	-$190.65	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$353.12	$360.39	+$7.27	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$195.27	$188.8	-$6.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$157.85	$171.59	+$13.74
RN1	Overavg 54.1¢	$286.7	$307.64	+$20.94	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 54¢	$108	$110.09	+$2.09	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 46.1¢	$119.73	$79.27	-$40.46	31% 412-897 (1309)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$67.52	$44.31	-$23.21	31% 411-924 (1335)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$39.98	$43.92	+$3.95	49% 693-734 (1427)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$11.4	$8.99	-$2.41	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 46¢	$5.13	$4.38	+$0.69	52% 497-453 (950)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$3.39	$4.24	+$0.84	53% 290-259 (549)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56¢	$3.15	$3.1	-$0.05	55% 683-554 (1237)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.75	+$0.45	34% 328-634 (962)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$613.44

Value

$685.67

PnL

+$72.22

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$565.79

Value

$375.14

PnL

-$190.65

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$353.12

Value

$360.39

PnL

+$7.27

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Under$195.2746.5¢-$6.47

Over$157.8550.6¢+$13.74

RN1

Over

Invested

$286.7

Value

$307.64

PnL

+$20.94

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$108

Value

$110.09

PnL

+$2.09

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$119.73

Value

$79.27

PnL

-$40.46

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.52

Value

$44.31

PnL

-$23.21

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.98

Value

$43.92

PnL

+$3.95

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.4

Value

$8.99

PnL

-$2.41

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$5.13

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.69

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.39

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.