Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 82¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 12

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.8K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 81.5¢

+53% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$29.0K

Total Shares34,527

Combined PnL+$10.6K

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares26,101

Combined PnL$-5.5K

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 53¢	$12.4K	$19.6K	+$7.2K	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
drainedandpoor	Overavg 52¢	$3.4K	$5.5K	+$2.1K	47% 414-462 (876)
TM TMingchanCTR	Underavg 47¢	$9.4K	$5.1K	$-4.3K	23% 11-36 (47)
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 53¢	$2.2K	$3.4K	+$1.3K	70% 1671-717 (2388)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.3K	$717.8	-$605.2	14% 77-472 (549)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.0K	$561.19	-$470.1	52% 497-453 (950)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 81.8¢	$438.86	$445.36	+$6.5	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$284.18	$180.32	-$103.85	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$254.91	$138.39	-$116.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$29.27	$41.94	+$12.67
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$235	$127.5	-$107.5	55% 205-165 (370)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 18¢	$100.6	$95.01	-$5.59	55% 719-584 (1303)
RN1<$100	Overavg 72¢	$81.36	$94.92	+$13.56	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$17.51	$9.43	-$8.07	49% 693-734 (1427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$12,354.82

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$7.2K

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

drainedandpoor

Over

Invested

$3,375.27

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

47%

414-462 (876)

TMingchanCTR

Under

Invested

$9,400

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

23%

11-36 (47)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$2,159.22

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,323

Value

$717.8

PnL

-$605.2

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,031.28

Value

$561.19

PnL

-$470.1

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$438.86

Value

$445.36

PnL

+$6.5

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$284.18

Value

$180.32

PnL

-$103.85

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Both legs:

Under$254.9147¢-$116.52

Over$29.2752¢+$12.67

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$235

Value

$127.5

PnL

-$107.5

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$100.6

Value

$95.01

PnL

-$5.59

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$81.36

Value

$94.92

PnL

+$13.56

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.51

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$8.07

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.