Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over78¢Under22¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$8.73

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 78¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,624

Combined PnL-$85.09

Under6 traders

Total Value$378.68

Total Shares1,703

Combined PnL+$93.82

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
D9 0xd991...c161	Overavg 82.9¢	$888.39	$835.75	-$52.64	—
RN1	Overavg 83.9¢	$463.79	$431.34	-$32.45	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 22.9¢	$90.99	$133	+$42	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 12.1¢	$72.23	$104.3	+$32.07	55% 719-584 (1303)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 17.5¢	$70	$70	+$0	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
5D 0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$17.13	$35.87	+$18.74	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$27.37	$28.17	+$0.8	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$7.14	$7.35	+$0.21	49% 693-734 (1427)

0xd991...c161

Over

Invested

$888.39

Value

$835.75

PnL

-$52.64

Record

—

RN1

Over

Invested

$463.79

Value

$431.34

PnL

-$32.45

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$90.99

Value

$133

PnL

+$42

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$72.23

Value

$104.3

PnL

+$32.07

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70

Value

$70

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.13

Value

$35.87

PnL

+$18.74

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.37

Value

$28.17

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.35

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.