Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 219.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$1.3K
$18.87
89.5¢ → 98¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 90.6¢ | $921.88 | $1.0K | +$79.65 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 83.9¢ | $213.35 | $210.49 | +$0.88 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $33.91 | $33.91 | +$0 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $45.21 | $13.3 | -$31.91 | 31% 411-924 (1335) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $34 | $10 | -$24 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 94.1¢ | $17.19 | $8.61 | -$5.75 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
Invested
$921.88
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$79.65
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$213.35
Value
$210.49
PnL
+$0.88
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$33.91
Value
$33.91
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$45.21
Value
$13.3
PnL
-$31.91
Record
31%
411-924 (1335)
Invested
$34
Value
$10
PnL
-$24
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$17.19
Value
$8.61
PnL
-$5.75
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.