Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 211.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 86%
$1.1K
-$4.29
95.3¢ → 98.7¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 92¢ | $987.54 | $462.11 | +$62.13 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 98¢ | $352.86 | $341.46 | -$11.4 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 98¢ | $196 | $197.7 | +$1.7 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 98.1¢ | $59.75 | $56.9 | -$2.85 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $72.23 | $18.06 | -$54.17 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $11 | $11.11 | +$0.11 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.94 | +$0.19 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
Invested
$987.54
Value
$462.11
PnL
+$62.13
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$352.86
Value
$341.46
PnL
-$11.4
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$196
Value
$197.7
PnL
+$1.7
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$59.75
Value
$56.9
PnL
-$2.85
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$72.23
Value
$18.06
PnL
-$54.17
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$11
Value
$11.11
PnL
+$0.11
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
RN1<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.94
PnL
+$0.19
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.